Trump returns to the White House at a time when the global stakes are higher than ever. What can be expected from his unpredictable foreign policy, and what does this mean for international solidarity, geopolitical stability and democratic values?
From a European perspective, this US election was always going to be about more than watching from afar. Having witnessed Trump’s disastrous first-term foreign policy actions, even Europeans with their own de-democratizing ideas didn’t favour a rerun. Harris’s Democratic candidacy was more acceptable to many of Europe’s growing number of far-right voters – her right-leaning policies offering a steadier global economic progression in geopolitically unsettled times. Trump’s ‘America First’ brand of oligarchy will leave other markets hanging, worrying the pockets of many conservative Europeans.
Photo by Darren Halstead from Unsplash
But the threat of global market instability isn’t the only cause for concern. Since Trump was last US president, war has escalated in Europe. Should Trump revoke US support for Ukraine as inferred, it won’t be just the bill at the checkout that takes a beating. ‘From January 2022 to April 2024, the US provided 27 per cent of the financial aid Ukraine received,’ writes Cassia Scott-Jones for New Eastern Europe. ‘During the six-month congressional deadlock, which ended in April 2024 … Ukraine intercepted only 46 per cent of Russian missiles … In the previous six months, Ukraine had successfully intercepted 73 per cent of missiles.’ Figures of a lull in support speak for themselves.
‘Trump’s narrative has always hinged on the assertion that Russia would not have dared to invade Ukraine under his watch,’ continues Scott-Jones. Her argument ultimately predicts an upside from this posturing to ‘end the war within 24 hours’: ‘Historical flexibility suggests Trump’s position could shift on the need to uphold political narratives of the US as a strong, dominant power in the world.’
Second guessing the whims of an entertainer will become part of everyday politics again. Only the stakes are even higher this time. When I listened to Catherine Ashton’s keynote lecture at the Institute for Human Sciences’ Humanities Festival this year, I was initially perplexed by her nonchalance when asked about Trump pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, an agreement she had helped broker in 2015.
Trump’s action had trashed hard-won negotiations in one swift manoeuvre, yet Ashton’s response jokingly referenced his hotel development business, suggesting that even Trump had an interest in the Middle East. I later read her cool answer as a refusal to let a loss take precedence, adjusting to whatever stance would keep the negotiating table open. Might attempts at peace in the Middle East lean on economic bargaining? Trump, who isn’t even the world’s most astute businessperson, will more likely destabilize NATO, giving not only Putin but also Netanyahu even more free rein.
Increasingly, the concern is what exactly will remain of international solidarity and crisis management with a major power not only pulling out of agreements but also putting a divisive spanner in the works. Trump’s promise to ‘drill, baby, drill’ will perilously exacerbate climate change. The impact of his plans should not be underestimated. He has also proposed the mass deportations of immigrants. That climate and displacement are interconnected issues is treated as a seemingly inconvenient fact that will haunt us all.
Trump is no stranger to preying on the minds and bodies of others. His bid to counter Harris’s campaigning on abortion rights as a ‘protector of women’ left a foul taste: this near-convicted sexual offender had to win this election not just for the Republican party but also to avoid likely imprisonment. The message that abusers can protect themselves and evade the law if they are powerful enough is a devastating blow for justice.
America’s democracy – also undermined by vote buying and false claims – is being taken apart from within. Europe’s own political landscape – from the EU parliamentary to national elections – veering towards more radical campaigning, offered plenty of warning. All that remains now is the refusal to let this be democracy’s demise.
Take a closer look at our topical on the US election with key reads from Eurozine’s partner journals and collaborators.
Published 6 November 2024
Original in English
First published by Eurozine
© Sarah Waring / Eurozine
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